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Risk analysis and Bootstrapping.

The lake is sensitive to the order of wet years and dry years. A sequence of dry years will result in a salinity peak intolerable to the vast majority of the fauna and flora.

The 43 year input data sequence we have provides a fairly good sample of the range of conditions on a year on year basis. Unfortunately 43 years is a small sample when possible 5 year permutations of conditions are considered.

Analysis showed that there was no statistically significant correlation between yearly rainfall of succeeding years. There was significant correlation between succeeding months.

To increase the sample size the data sequence can be bootstrapped. The data sequence is broken up into year long chunks, and an artificial sequence was generated by randomly sampling the year chunks.


John Carter
Tue Jun 17 09:50:07 SAT 1997